OW much does information technology really contribute to
economic productivity and corporate competitiveness? It has been a
matter of debate for years. Efforts to measure technology's
contribution tend to follow Sherlock Holmes's maxim on deductive
sleuthing: When you have excluded the impossible, whatever remains,
however improbable, must be the truth.
That kind of reasoning has given technology a large share of the
credit for the American economy's strong - and sometimes puzzling -
productivity gains for the last several years. The gains cannot be
explained any other way, it is said, so they must be the result of
companies getting an increase in productivity from all that computer
hardware and software they bought.
Yet this technology-by-default explanation is not very
intellectually satisfying. Nor does it provide much of a guide to
government officials or corporate executives as they make decisions
on economic policy or business investments. There is something to
the business adage that you can't manage what you can't measure.
Economists, business school professors and Federal Reserve
researchers have been puzzling over the technology conundrum for
some time. And today, the Information Work Productivity Council, an
industry group, is sponsoring a gathering in New York of business
executives, consultants and academics to discuss current research,
case studies and future trends. The council says it is independent,
but it is hardly disinterested since its supporters are major
technology companies including Accenture,
Cisco
Systems, Hewlett-Packard,
Intel,
Microsoft,
SAP and Xerox.
What is intriguing about much of the research marked for citation
and discussion at the forum is how modest a role technology itself
plays in the productivity gains studied. The wise use of technology,
researchers say, is one ingredient in the recipe for improving the
productivity of information workers, who now represent up to 70
percent of the American labor force, or 100 million workers, from
customer service people in call centers to scientists in research
labs.
The main focus of recent study has been on what researchers call
"organization capital." This asset includes a company's work
practices and routines, its storehouse of corporate knowledge in
computer databases and in people's heads, and even culture and
values as they guide how a company operates.
In a National Bureau of Economic Research working paper, Baruch
Lev, a professor at New York University, and Suresh Radhakrishnan, a
professor at the University of Texas at Dallas, studied 250
companies and assessed the contribution from organization capital.
In the paper, "The Measurement of Firm-Specific Organization
Capital," published last year, the professors found that investments
in organizational capital accounted, on average, for 71 percent of
sales growth.
"How information gets communicated and coordinated in a company
can drive organization capital," Mr. Radhakrishnan said, "so it is
enhanced by information technology."
Much of organization capital is expressed in terms of work
practices - how things are done in a company. When blended with
technology investments, certain work practices yield the biggest
gains, said Erik Brynjolfsson, a professor at the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology. The companies that perform best, he said,
use teams more often than their rivals. They decentralize work that
requires local knowledge and interpersonal skills like product
design, sales and on-the-fly adjustments on the factory floor, and
they centralize and computerize work that is easily quantified, like
accounts payable systems and obtaining the lowest airline fares for
routine travel.
Investments in technology alone, Mr. Brynjolfsson said, bring
little or no benefit. But he says that technology and organization
capital are complements, reinforcing each other when used wisely
together. "When you put organization capital into the model, it goes
a long way to explaining the productivity surge we've seen," Mr.
Brynjolfsson said. "It's not so much of a mystery."
The observation that it is learning how to use a technology -
more than the technology itself - that brings economic gains is not
surprising. That is the historical pattern, economists note. The
electric motor, for example, was introduced in the 1880's but did
not generate discernible productivity gains until the 1920's, when
businesses reorganized work around the industrial production line,
the efficiency breakthrough of its day.